Romanian employers report they will slow the pace of hiring in the final three months of the year, with hiring expectations dropping 9 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2011 as compared with last quarter, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released today by Manpower Romania. (John: the NEO was -2 in Q1 2011, which means it’s not the first drop this year.)
Despite the considerable quarter-over-quarter decline, the Net Employment Outlook still stands at a respectable +11%. And even after the quarter-over-quarter dip in the Outlook, the survey of 763 Romanian employers reveals that more than one out of five Romanian employers indicate they will still add to their payrolls through the end of the year.
“At the time of the survey, the stock market was under a serious pressure and predictions of a potential double-dip recession in the United States may have affected employer confidence locally. However, the overall employment picture is still strong, especially compared to a year ago when the Net Employment Outlook was at 0% -- it’s now 11 percentage points stronger,” said Valentin Petrof, Country Manager of ManpowerGroup Romania.
“We believe the real threat to growth isn’t a drop in demand but a shortage of skills. The ManpowerGroup’s recent global Talent Shortage Survey found that in Romania, skilled trades – on which many sectors rely heavily - are the nation’s number one area of talent shortage. Moreover Romanian employers are having the greatest difficulty in filling positions (53%) in the entire EMEA region. We need a more detailed understanding of which skills and competencies are needed, then a national program for developing them. Strategic relocation of skills, or talent mobility, at the national level is also essential for ensuring we have the right skills, in the right place, at the right time. Employers need to invest both time and resources in improving engagement and retention, but they also need to become more sophisticated in the way they redeploy and up skill workers,” Petrof added.
At the regional level, employers in all eight regions expect to increase staffing levels during Quarter 4 2011. The most optimistic hiring plans are reported in the South-West, where the Net Employment Outlook stands at +14%, and upbeat hiring intentions are evident in four regions where the Outlook stands at +13% -- Bucharest & Ilfov, the North-West, the South and the West. Employers in the Center report a respectable Outlook of +12%.
In an industry sector comparison, Employers in eight of the 10 industry sectors predict an increase in headcount during Quarter 4 2011. In the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, employers forecast solid headcount gains, with a Net Employment Outlook of +23%. A steady hiring pace is expected in the Manufacturing sector where the Outlook is +20%, and respectable headcount growth is anticipated by Construction sector employers who report an Outlook of +17%. The Outlook for the Transport, Storage & Communication sector stands at +12%, and employers in the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services sector report an Outlook of +8%. Meanwhile, in the Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry & Fishing sector, employers report a 4 percentage point decline in the Outlook.
EMEA (Europe Middle East and Africa)
Fourth quarter labor market trends in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region follow the same mixed results seen throughout 2011, with positive hiring activity expected in 18 of 23 countries surveyed. Outlooks soften from three months ago in 13 countries but improve in 11 compared to one year ago. Regional hiring plans are strongest in Turkey, Israel, Norway and Bulgaria and weakest in Greece and Italy. Although hiring is expected to be in positive territory, Manufacturing job prospects weaken across most of Europe despite a continued steady hiring forecast from German industry.
International
Elsewhere, employers in India and China expect to slow hiring from three months ago, with notably more employers in the two countries reporting they don’t know what lies ahead for hiring in the final three months of the year. Meanwhile, employers in Brazil and Taiwan report the strongest hiring plans globally and say they will continue their robust hiring pace. In contrast, U.S. employers expect to continue their cautious hiring approach through the end of the year. And while Net Employment Outlooks soften from the third quarter in 21 of 39 countries and territories, they do remain in positive territory in 36 and are stronger than they were last year at this time in the majority of countries that ManpowerGroup surveys.
ManpowerGroup’s labor market research reveals fourth quarter hiring expectations are positive in 36 of 41 countries and territories, with Net Employment Outlooks softening from three months ago in 21 countries and territories, but improving in 20 compared to this time last year. Hiring intentions for the final quarter of 2011 are strongest in Brazil, Taiwan, India, Singapore, Panama, New Zealand, Colombia and Hong Kong, and weakest in Greece, Italy Slovenia and Spain. This quarter, employers in Slovakia and Israel are polled for the first time.
“The spark of optimism seen in the global labor market last quarter did not take hold, as employers in the majority of countries we research are now throttling their hiring needs. Companies across the world are now more agile and quick to adjust to macro threats and decreased demand in their own businesses, giving employers a hyperactive index finger when it comes to hitting the start/stop button on hiring,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman and CEO of ManpowerGroup. “Just like financial markets, labor markets continue to adjust to the ‘new normal’ and there will continue to be turbulence. Navigating this seesawing demand is difficult for employers, but most employers continue to be thoughtful and cautious in their hiring. For example, India’s less confident outlook is due partially to weaker U.S. demand, as the U.S. accounts for almost 60 percent of the revenues in the $60 billion Indian IT industry. At the same time, we see job prospects in China decline for the fourth consecutive quarter as employers — especially small businesses — continue to struggle with increasing labor costs. There is good news in Japan with employers’ optimism now the strongest in three years, as companies in the earthquake-devastated Tohoku region are returning to regular production schedules and government job initiatives for displaced workers aid the recovery.”
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on the 13th of December 2011 to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2012. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is available free of charge to the public through their local Manpower representative in participating countries. For Romania you can find the brochure and the press release both in Romanian and English at www.manpower.ro in the Pressroom. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, interested individuals are invited to complete an online subscription form at: http://www.manpowergroup.com/investors/alerts.cfm
*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease.
Note to Editors
Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Full survey results for each of the 41 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found in the ManpowerGroup Press Room at http://www.manpowergroup.com/press/meos.cfm .
About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the most extensive forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The Survey has been running for nearly 50 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is based on interviews with over 65,000 public and private employers worldwide and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 41 countries and territories: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States.
The program began in the United States and Canada in 1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries were added to the program in 2003. New Zealand joined the program in 2004, China, India, Switzerland and Taiwan were added in 2005, and Argentina, Peru, Costa Rica and South Africa joined in 2006. Colombia, the Czech Republic, Greece, Guatemala, Poland and Romania joined in 2008 and Hungary and Brazil were added in 2009. In 2010 Manpower’s Panama operation launches the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Israel and Slovakia launch the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the fourth quarter, expanding the program total to 41 countries and territories worldwide.
About ManpowerGroup Romania
ManpowerGroup Romania, one of the leaders in innovative workforce solutions, creates and delivers services that help clients meet their business and workforce objectives while enhancing their competitiveness. The company is specialized in permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; payroll; contract administration; outsourcing and consulting. Manpower Professional is Manpower’s brand delivering an entire range of services: recruitment, temporary working, selection; outsourcing; and consulting on middle & top managers and specialists. Our extensive resources, world-class client list, and reputation attract a diverse group of talented candidates, with every level of education, skills and experience ranging from permanent direct hire to one-day contracts. More information on ManpowerGroup Romania is available at www.manpower.ro .
About ManpowerGroup™
ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN), the world leader in innovative workforce solutions, creates and delivers high-impact solutions that enable our clients to achieve their business goals and enhance their competitiveness. With over 60 years of experience, our $22 billion company creates unique time to value through a comprehensive suite of innovative solutions that help clients win in the Human Age. These solutions cover an entire range of talent-driven needs from recruitment and assessment, training and development, and career management, to outsourcing and workforce consulting. ManpowerGroup maintains the world's largest and industry-leading network of nearly 3,900 offices in over 80 countries and territories, generating a dynamic mix of an unmatched global footprint with valuable insight and local expertise to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year, across all industry sectors, small and medium-sized enterprises, local, multinational and global companies. By connecting our deep understanding of human potential to the ambitions of clients, ManpowerGroup helps the organizations and individuals we serve achieve more than they imagined — because their success leads to our success. And by creating these powerful connections, we create power that drives organizations forward, accelerates personal success and builds more sustainable communities. We help power the world of work. The ManpowerGroup suite of solutions is offered through ManpowerGroup™ Solutions, Manpower®, Experis™ and Right Management®. Learn more about how the ManpowerGroup can help you win in the Human Age at www.manpowergroup.com.
If you need more information, graphs and data, please contact:
ManpowerGroup Romania
Marketing & Communication Department
Eliza Nechifor
Tel. + 40 21 312 1898
eliza.nechifor@manpowergroup.ro
